Historical Breakdowns
Historical Breakdowns · Presidential Elections
Presidential Election History
State-level presidential margins 2000–2024, rightward shift analysis, and 2024 exit poll breakdowns by race, education, age, and top issues.
Most Republican (2024)
R+45.8
Wyoming
Most Democratic (2024)
D+83.8
Washington D.C.
Biggest Rightward Shift (2000→2024)
R+35.6
West Virginia
Biggest Leftward Shift (2000→2024)
D+21.6
Vermont
Swing State Margin Trend
Positive = R win, negative = D win
2020→2024 Rightward Shift by State
All 50 states shifted to the right in 2024
Displaying top 20 states by rightward shift
Hispanic / Latino Vote Share 2016–2024
Dem share fell 15 pts over 8 years
2024 Exit Poll Breakdown
Harris vs Trump % — Source: Washington Post
All States — Presidential Margins 2000–2024
Positive = GOP win · Negative = Dem win · Last column = 2020→2024 shift
| State | 2024 | 2020 | 2016 | 2012 | 2008 | 2004 | 2000 | 20→24 Shift |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | R+30.5 | R+25.4 | R+27.7 | R+22.1 | R+21.6 | R+25.7 | R+14.9 | R+5.1 |
| Alaska | R+13.1 | R+10.0 | R+14.7 | R+14.0 | R+21.5 | R+25.6 | R+30.9 | R+3.1 |
| Arizona | R+5.5 | D+0.3 | R+3.5 | R+9.1 | R+8.5 | R+10.5 | R+6.3 | R+5.8 |
| Arkansas | R+30.6 | R+27.6 | R+26.9 | R+23.7 | R+19.8 | R+9.8 | R+5.4 | R+3 |
| California | D+20.2 | D+29.1 | D+30.0 | D+23.1 | D+24.0 | D+9.9 | D+11.7 | R+8.9 |
| Colorado | D+11.0 | D+13.5 | D+4.9 | D+5.3 | D+9.0 | R+4.7 | R+8.4 | R+2.5 |
| Connecticut | D+14.5 | D+20.0 | D+13.7 | D+17.4 | D+22.4 | D+10.4 | D+17.5 | R+5.5 |
| Delaware | D+14.7 | D+18.9 | D+11.4 | D+18.6 | D+25.0 | D+7.6 | D+13.1 | R+4.2 |
| Florida | R+13.1 | R+3.3 | R+1.2 | R+0.9 | D+2.8 | R+5.0 | R+0.0 | R+9.8 |
| Georgia | R+2.2 | D+0.2 | R+5.1 | R+7.8 | R+5.2 | R+16.6 | R+11.7 | R+2.4 |
| Hawaii | D+23.1 | D+29.4 | D+32.2 | D+42.7 | D+45.2 | D+8.7 | D+18.3 | R+6.3 |
| Idaho | R+36.5 | R+30.7 | R+31.7 | R+31.7 | R+25.3 | R+38.1 | R+39.6 | R+5.8 |
| Illinois | D+10.9 | D+17.0 | D+16.8 | D+16.8 | D+25.1 | D+10.3 | D+12.0 | R+6.1 |
| Indiana | R+19.0 | R+16.0 | R+19.0 | R+10.2 | R+1.0 | R+20.6 | R+15.6 | R+3 |
| Iowa | R+13.2 | R+8.2 | R+9.4 | D+5.8 | D+9.5 | R+0.7 | D+0.3 | R+5 |
| Kansas | R+16.2 | R+14.6 | R+20.3 | R+21.7 | R+14.9 | R+25.4 | R+20.8 | R+1.6 |
| Kentucky | R+30.6 | R+25.9 | R+29.8 | R+22.7 | R+16.3 | R+19.8 | R+15.1 | R+4.7 |
| Louisiana | R+22.0 | R+18.6 | R+19.7 | R+17.2 | R+18.7 | R+14.5 | R+7.7 | R+3.4 |
| Maine | D+6.9 | D+9.1 | D+2.9 | D+15.3 | D+17.3 | D+9.0 | D+5.1 | R+2.2 |
| Maryland | D+28.5 | D+33.2 | D+26.4 | D+26.1 | D+25.4 | D+13.0 | D+16.4 | R+4.7 |
| Massachusetts | D+25.2 | D+33.5 | D+27.2 | D+23.2 | D+25.8 | D+25.1 | D+27.3 | R+8.3 |
| Michigan | R+1.4 | D+2.8 | R+0.2 | D+9.4 | D+16.4 | D+3.4 | D+5.2 | R+4.2 |
| Minnesota | D+4.2 | D+7.1 | D+1.5 | D+7.7 | D+10.3 | D+3.5 | D+2.4 | R+2.9 |
| Mississippi | R+22.9 | R+16.5 | R+17.8 | R+11.5 | R+13.2 | R+19.6 | R+16.9 | R+6.4 |
| Missouri | R+18.4 | R+15.4 | R+18.5 | R+9.3 | R+0.2 | R+7.2 | R+3.3 | R+3 |
| Montana | R+19.9 | R+16.4 | R+20.2 | R+13.6 | R+2.4 | R+20.5 | R+25.0 | R+3.5 |
| Nebraska | R+20.4 | R+19.0 | R+25.0 | R+21.8 | R+14.9 | R+33.2 | R+28.9 | R+1.4 |
| Nevada | R+3.1 | D+2.4 | D+2.4 | D+6.7 | D+12.4 | R+2.6 | R+3.5 | R+5.5 |
| New Hampshire | D+2.8 | D+7.3 | D+0.3 | D+5.6 | D+9.6 | D+1.3 | R+1.3 | R+4.5 |
| New Jersey | D+5.9 | D+15.8 | D+14.0 | D+17.7 | D+15.5 | D+6.7 | D+15.8 | R+9.9 |
| New Mexico | D+6.0 | D+10.8 | D+8.3 | D+10.2 | D+15.1 | R+0.8 | D+0.1 | R+4.8 |
| New York | D+12.6 | D+23.1 | D+22.5 | D+28.1 | D+26.9 | D+18.3 | D+25.0 | R+10.5 |
| North Carolina | R+3.2 | R+1.3 | R+3.6 | R+2.0 | D+0.3 | R+12.4 | R+12.8 | R+1.9 |
| North Dakota | R+36.5 | R+33.3 | R+35.8 | R+19.6 | R+8.7 | R+27.4 | R+27.6 | R+3.2 |
| Ohio | R+11.2 | R+8.0 | R+8.1 | R+3.0 | D+4.6 | R+2.1 | R+3.5 | R+3.2 |
| Oklahoma | R+34.3 | R+33.1 | R+36.4 | R+33.6 | R+31.2 | R+31.2 | R+21.9 | R+1.2 |
| Oregon | D+14.3 | D+16.1 | D+11.0 | D+12.1 | D+16.3 | D+4.1 | D+0.5 | R+1.8 |
| Pennsylvania | R+1.7 | D+1.2 | R+0.7 | D+5.4 | D+10.3 | D+2.5 | D+4.2 | R+2.9 |
| Rhode Island | D+13.7 | D+20.8 | D+15.5 | D+27.5 | D+27.8 | D+20.7 | D+29.1 | R+7.1 |
| South Carolina | R+17.8 | R+11.7 | R+14.2 | R+10.5 | R+9.0 | R+17.1 | R+15.9 | R+6.1 |
| South Dakota | R+29.2 | R+26.2 | R+29.8 | R+18.0 | R+8.5 | R+21.5 | R+22.7 | R+3 |
| Tennessee | R+29.7 | R+23.2 | R+26.0 | R+20.4 | R+15.0 | R+14.3 | R+3.8 | R+6.5 |
| Texas | R+13.6 | R+5.6 | R+9.0 | R+15.7 | R+11.8 | R+22.9 | R+21.3 | R+8 |
| Utah | R+21.6 | R+20.3 | R+17.8 | R+47.8 | R+28.0 | R+45.5 | R+40.5 | R+1.3 |
| Vermont | D+31.5 | D+35.4 | D+26.4 | D+35.6 | D+37.1 | D+20.1 | D+9.9 | R+3.9 |
| Virginia | D+5.7 | D+10.1 | D+5.4 | D+3.9 | D+6.3 | R+8.2 | R+8.1 | R+4.4 |
| Washington | D+18.2 | D+19.2 | D+15.7 | D+14.8 | D+17.0 | D+7.2 | D+5.5 | R+1 |
| Washington D.C. | D+83.8 | D+86.7 | D+86.8 | D+83.6 | D+86.0 | D+79.9 | D+76.2 | R+2.9 |
| West Virginia | R+41.9 | R+38.9 | R+41.6 | R+26.6 | R+13.1 | R+12.9 | R+6.3 | R+3 |
| Wisconsin | R+0.9 | D+0.6 | R+0.7 | D+6.9 | D+13.9 | D+0.4 | D+0.2 | R+1.5 |
| Wyoming | R+45.8 | R+43.3 | R+46.3 | R+40.8 | R+32.3 | R+39.8 | R+40.1 | R+2.5 |